ICC World Twenty20 Semi-Final | Pakistan vs Sri Lanka | Prediction, Betting Odds and Advise
- Match Schedule: Today, 4 October 2012
- Venue: Premadasa Stadium, Colombo
Result Prediction
We will take into account the following factors:
- Team composition (batting and bowling quality of the two teams)
- Current form of the players
- The pitch condition and how it affects the two teams
Team: Pakistan
As per probable XI:
| T20 World Cup 2012: Batting Performance – Pakistan | |||||||
| Player | Mat | Inns | Runs | Ave | SR | HS | 4s + 6s |
| Mohammad Hafeez | 5 | 5 | 122 | 24.4 | 96.06 | 45 | 14 |
| Imran Nazir | 5 | 5 | 133 | 26.6 | 164.19 | 72 | 24 |
| Nasir Jamshed | 5 | 5 | 144 | 36 | 141.17 | 56 | 16 |
| Kamran Akmal | 5 | 5 | 63 | 15.75 | 112.5 | 32 | 6 |
| Umar Akmal | 5 | 4 | 96 | 48 | 117.07 | 43* | 11 |
| Abdul Razzaq | 1 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 129.41 | 22 | 3 |
| Shahid Afridi | 5 | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 142.85 | 14 | 5 |
| Shoaib Malik | 5 | 4 | 53 | 26.5 | 91.37 | 28 | 5 |
| Umar Gul | 5 | 2 | 44 | 22 | 162.96 | 32 | 7 |
While the Pakistani top three seem to have done well, the lower order has under performed.
Kamran Akmal has under performed while his brother has done much better.
Betting Advise: While you can start by being bullish on Pakistan, back out if early wickets fall. Afridi, Malik and Razzaq are yet to have done any wonders.
| T20 World Cup 2012: Bowling Performance – Pakistan | ||||||||
| Player | Mat | Inns | Overs | Mdns | Runs | Wkts | Ave | Econ |
| Raza Hasan | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 48 | 3 | 16 | 4.36 |
| Mohammad Hafeez | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 95 | 4 | 23.75 | 5.93 |
| Saeed Ajmal | 5 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 130 | 8 | 16.25 | 6.5 |
| Shahid Afridi | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 143 | 3 | 47.66 | 7.15 |
| Shoaib Malik | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 0 | – | 9.5 |
| Umar Gul | 5 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 142 | 2 | 71 | 10.14 |
Bowling has always been Pakistan’s strength, and it shows here in the World Twenty20 as well.
Saeed Ajmal has no doubt been the star.
But he has been ably supported by Raza Hasan and Hafeez in the spin department.
Afridi has been average. Umar Gul and Malik have disappointed.
Betting Advise: Even if Pakistan don’t start off well, don’t panic. The spinners have done splendidly thus far, and get things back in control. So, if Gul gives away early runs, you might be able to pick up good odds to place your bet on Pakistan.
Team: Sri Lanka
As per probable XI
| T20 World Cup 2012: Batting Performance – Sri Lanka | |||||||
| Player | Mat | Inns | Runs | Ave | BF | SR | 4s+6s |
| DPMD Jayawardene | 5 | 5 | 168 | 42 | 137 | 122.62 | 25 |
| AD Mathews | 5 | 2 | 40 | 40 | 30 | 133.33 | 4 |
| BMAJ Mendis | 5 | 4 | 76 | 38 | 57 | 133.33 | 10 |
| KC Sangakkara | 5 | 5 | 130 | 32.5 | 97 | 134.02 | 14 |
| TM Dilshan | 5 | 5 | 144 | 28.8 | 102 | 141.17 | 18 |
| NLTC Perera | 5 | 4 | 38 | 19 | 24 | 158.33 | 4 |
| HDRL Thirimanne | 5 | 3 | 23 | 11.5 | 14 | 164.28 | 3 |
| KMDN Kulasekara | 5 | 1 | 1 | – | 3 | 33.33 | 0 |
Top order has done well. So you can be bullish on Sri Lanka at the start.
Middle and lower order batsmen have done their jobs. So you can expect a lot from Lanka while batting. If they are given a stiff target and you get the right odds, it might not be a bad idea to place to bet on Lanka. Caution: Pakistan bowling is good and as we advised above, they can turn things around in the middle with Ajmal. So the idea behind placing the bet should be to square off the position quickly, preferably by the close of the power play overs.
| T20 World Cup Bowling Performance – Sri Lanka | |||||||
| Player | Mat | Inns | Overs | Runs | Wkts | Ave | Econ |
| BMAJ Mendis | 5 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 5 | 10.8 | 6 |
| KMDN Kulasekara | 5 | 5 | 16 | 108 | 5 | 21.6 | 6.75 |
| BAW Mendis | 4 | 4 | 16 | 108 | 9 | 12 | 6.75 |
| AD Mathews | 5 | 5 | 12 | 81 | 1 | 81 | 6.75 |
| SL Malinga | 5 | 5 | 16.3 | 134 | 8 | 16.75 | 8.12 |
| NLTC Perera | 5 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 28 | 9.33 |
Pretty good scene there for Sri Lanka. Nothing striking, but you can expect a sound professional performance from them.
But they don’t quite have the attack to defend a low score. So beware if their batsmen fail.
Similarly they have an attack which will be difficult to score too many of. So if they have a tall score, they should be able to defend it.
Pitch Report: Premadasa Stadium
As we have seen in the final Super Eight matches, the wicket has begun offering more and more help to spinners.
Batsmen are finding it difficult to hit it big. So don’t expect big scores. It will be a likely 135-150 affair.
Both teams have good spinners, though Pakistan have the edge in this department.
Home conditions suit Sri Lanka, and overall their batsmen look more well settled.
Overall Prediction:
No clear favorite team here.
Pre-match Odds for an outright win (Betfair)
- Pakistan: 2.20
- Sri Lanka 1.81
Those odds are because of the home advantage that Sri Lanka will enjoy. But don’t read too much into it. Since you are getting better odds on Pakistan to begin with, the right thing to do would be to start by placing a small bet on them right away. Then proceed carefully as the match progresses.
